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{"id":9002,"date":"2022-03-21T21:15:31","date_gmt":"2022-03-21T21:15:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lossi36.com\/?p=9002"},"modified":"2022-03-21T21:17:13","modified_gmt":"2022-03-21T21:17:13","slug":"lossi-36-weekly-11-news-highlights-from-central-europe-to-central-asia-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lossi36.com\/2022\/03\/21\/lossi-36-weekly-11-news-highlights-from-central-europe-to-central-asia-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Lossi 36 Weekly #11: news highlights from Central Europe to Central Asia"},"content":{"rendered":"Subscribe to our Weekly<\/span><\/i> here<\/i><\/b><\/a>.<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n In this week\u2019s newsletter\u00a0<\/strong>\ud83d\udcee: The Night Wolves<\/strong>‘ support for Russia’s aggression; fears of new escalation in\u00a0Nagorno-Karabakh<\/strong>; new President in Turkmenistan<\/strong>; Central European Prime Ministers visit\u00a0Kyiv<\/strong>;\u00a0Bulgaria<\/strong>‘s ex-PM\u00a0Borissov<\/strong> arrested; the question of Syrians<\/strong> in Ukraine<\/strong>;\u00a0and much more.<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Serbian flight loophole for Russians in jeopardy after repeated bomb threats.<\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong> One of the last major flight connections between Russia and Europe has come under increasing pressure in recent days due to consistent reportings of bombs threats onboard flights. The Belgrade to Moscow connection, on which AirSerbia had just\u00a0doubled<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0its flights, alongside selling out its initial available tickets for the month of March, has now been de-facto grounded after a sharp increase in the number of alerts about bombs allegedly planted onboard flights, with a third flight having now been\u00a0affected<\/strong><\/a> by the threats. The alerts are being seen as politically-motivated. They appear to be a response to the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, seeking to punish Serbia for its neutral stance on the conflict, although the police are still searching for suspects. AirSerbia has now announced that it will be downscaling<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0its flight operations to Moscow back to the once per day schedule it operated before the invasion. Moreover, there has been sporadic reporting on social media platforms throughout the last couple of days that AirSerbia may shortly announce a full halt of the route until the situation has calmed down, although this is unconfirmed at the time of writing.<\/span><\/p>\n Night Wolves bicycle gang hold protest in Banja Luka in support of Russia\u2019s war.\u00a0<\/strong>The Bosnian Serb branch of the notorious pro-Kremlin international motorcycle gang, the Night Wolves, held a\u00a0protest<\/strong><\/a> in support of Vladimir Putin and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in Banja Luka, Republika Srpska, on 13 February. Along with nationalist Serbian and Russian flags, the infamous \u2018Z\u2019 symbol was also observed \u2013 the letter with which Russian equipment was emblazoned before it crossed the Ukrainian border has now become a widespread symbol of support for the invasion. Speaking to Euronews, Zdravko Mo\u010devi\u0107, one of the participants of the rally, said \u2018Russia is not at war with Ukraine, it is at war with the dark Euro-Atlantic forces that want to dominate the world and destroy it.\u2019 The Western Balkans countries have been divided by the war; in Bosnia in particular, where a pro-Ukrainian protest was held in Tuzla<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0on the same day.<\/p>\n Georgian Dream at odds with Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili.\u00a0<\/strong>Speaking in Parliament on 14 March, Georgian president Salome Zurabishvili\u00a0claimed<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0that the ruling Georgian Dream government had refused to allow official visits to Paris, Brussels, Berlin, and Warsaw on 26 February to discuss the Russian invasion of Ukraine. She explained that this forced her to turn the planned visits into \u2018personal meetings,\u2019 which Georgian Dream says violates the Constitution. The party\u2019s political council\u00a0released<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0a three-page letter on 15 March stating that \u2018the government of Georgia is forced to appeal to the Constitutional Court in the near future and demand confirmation of the violation of the constitution by the president.\u2019 This would be the first time in Georgia that an incumbent president was sued for violating the constitution. Not only is this dividing the ruling partnership, but even Georgian Dream seems split on the issue \u2014 on 16 March, Tbilisi Mayor and Secretary General of Georgian Dream, Kakha Kaladze,\u00a0told<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0journalists that \u2018nobody is suing.\u2019<\/p>\n Fears of a new Azerbaijani military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh.\u00a0<\/strong>Recent weeks have been marked by increasing tension in Nagorno-Karabakh. On March 8, the main pipeline supplying gas to Nagorno-Karabakh, which is located in Azerbaijan-controlled territory, was allegedly sabotaged<\/strong><\/a>, leaving a potential humanitarian catastrophe in the region. There are some Azerbaijani telegram channels spreading information about\u00a0a special operation<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0that Azerbaijani Armed Forces is conducting in Nagorno-Karabakh. The Azerbaijani military is calling on the residents of Nagorno-Karabakh to leave their homes in order to \u2018save their own lives, otherwise they will be destroyed.\u2019 Meanwhile, there are also reports on Azerbaijani social media claiming Russian peacekeepers in the region have been sent to Ukraine. The validity of this information is not confirmed. However, the disseminated information by the Azerbaijan side is denied by the Nagorno-Karabakh authority and it is regarded as yet another attempt to cause panic among the residents in the region.<\/span><\/p>\n Renewed clashes at the Kyrgyz-Tajik border.\u00a0<\/strong>A Tajik border guard was reportedly killed on 10 March in an exchange of gunfire near a disputed segment of the border between the two Central Asian countries. The incident occurred after Tajik border guards entered the disputed area and requested that the Kyrgyz guards leave. This third death this year has led to\u00a0new talks<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0between officials on both sides of the contested area, during which both parties agreed to investigate the matter separately and continue to\u00a0exchange information<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0in order to prevent the conflict from escalating. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, border disputes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have taken place on multiple occasions, as half of the almost 1000-kilometre border has yet to be demarcated.\u00a0Unresolved issues<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0include distribution of water and illegal border crossings. Most recently, in spring 2021, 50 people died in a border clash.<\/p>\n Tokayev to move Kazakhstan away from \u2018super presidential\u2019 system.\u00a0<\/strong>During a joint session of the houses of parliament on March 16, President Tokayev announced <\/span>his intention to\u00a0turn<\/strong><\/a> Kazakhstan\u2019s political system from \u2018super presidential\u2019 rule to a presidential republic with a strong parliament. He\u00a0pledged<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0to reform the constitution, limit the powers of his office, make it easier for new political parties to register, distance the ruling party from government and reduce the number of parliament deputies directly or indirectly appointed by the president. He also vowed to not allow any of his family members to hold important political roles. These changes come in the aftermath of the violent unrest that took place in January, and led to ex-President Nazarbayev giving up his remaining powers as the head of the security council and leader of the ruling party. President Tokayev, elected in 2019, has recently been cracking down on the Nazarbayev family. Just three days before his parliamentary address, Nazarbayev\u2019s nephew, Kairat Satybaldy, was\u00a0detained<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0on embezzlement charges.<\/span><\/p>\n Serdar Berdymukhammedov wins Turkmen presidential election.\u00a0<\/strong>Unsurprisingly, the son of the current president of Turkmenistan, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, was\u00a0declared<\/strong><\/a> the winner of the presidential election held on 15 March. With eight other ‘opposition’ candidates, Berdymukhammedov secured around 73% of the vote. The results were\u00a0released<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0three days after the vote was held, which is unusual when compared to previous elections, when results were revealed the day after ballots were closed. This month\u2019s election, much like the previous ones, has faced accusations of vote rigging and was treated as a formality. Given the unexpectedness of the snap election and Berdymukhammedov Jr.\u2019s rather meagre result compared his father\u2019s, who\u2019d\u00a0secured<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0around 98% in the last election, it could be inferred that the incumbent is not exactly being replaced by his son, but that the vote will instead pave the way for an eventual succession and allow the new president to focus on the administrative aspect of governance, something his father has not been interested in over his past three terms.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Czech, Polish, and Slovenian PMs visit Zelenskiy.\u00a0<\/strong>On\u00a015 March<\/strong><\/a>, Czech PM Fiala, Polish PM Morawiecki, and Slovenian PM Jan\u0161a travelled to Kyiv by train to show support for Ukraine. They discussed sanctions, weapons, humanitarian needs and diplomacy. The European Commission and European Council were\u00a0consulted<\/strong><\/a> prior to the visit, and the three PMs acted as EU Council representatives. The journey was considered a security risk, as the PMs reportedly<\/strong><\/a> had no security guarantees from the Russian side. Security concerns were also the reason why the PM of Slovakia did not join the delegation. Since then, he admitted<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0that it was a mistake, and he should have travelled with them. Although this was a gesture of support, it was\u00a0condemned<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0by some. The visit was a security risk for Zelenskiy too, a burden for police and trains carrying humanitarian aid. Furthermore, the heads of government of Poland and Slovenia are both controversial political figures.<\/p>\n Polish deserter found dead in Minsk.\u00a0<\/strong>Emil Czeczko, a 25-year-old former soldier of the eleventh Masurian Artillery Regiment, was found\u00a0hanging<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0in his flat, in Minsk. The Investigative Committee of Belarus has launched an investigation into his death, reportedly not excluding foul play. Czeczko deserted and asked for asylum in Belarus in mid-December 2021, amidst\u00a0the crisis on the Polish-Belarusian border, where thousands of migrants, mostly from Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, were trying to cross from Belarus into the European Union. The crisis was widely regarded as having been\u00a0orchestrated<\/strong><\/a> by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, however, it also caused controversy<\/strong><\/a> in Poland and the EU because of the way the migrants were being treated by border forces on both sides. Following his desertion, Czeczko accused<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0Polish forces of killing 240 migrants and burying them in mass graves. His claims were forcefully denied by Polish authorities and were not proven by any other sources.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Constitutional amendments adopted in Belarus.\u00a0<\/strong>As Belarus celebrated its 28th Constitution Day on 15 March, a series of amendments to the Constitution officially came into force. The\u00a0changes<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0were adopted following a referendum that took place on 27 February in the shadow of the invasion in Ukraine. Belarusians abroad were\u00a0not allowed to vote<\/strong><\/a>. Many other significant violations of national and international electoral rules were\u00a0reported<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0during the referendum. According to Belarus\u2019\u00a0official figures<\/strong><\/a>, 82.86% voted in favour of the changes. The amendments allow Lukashenko to stay in power until 2035 and provide him with immunity from prosecution. Moreover, the reforms give power to the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly, which was created by Lukashenko and consists of his loyalists. The Assembly will determine Belarus\u2019 priorities for the next five years and amendments to the constitution. Furthermore, these changes ended Belarus\u2019 \u2018nuclear-free status,\u2019 which HR\/VP Josep Borrell\u00a0called<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0\u2018another worrying element.\u2019 He stressed that those who collaborate with Russian military aggression will be targeted.<\/p>\n Implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the world food system.\u00a0<\/strong>While the world is following the ongoing Russian invasion in Ukraine, the question of\u00a0food supplies<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0arises slowly but firmly. The United Nations\u00a0has warned<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0that Russia\u2019s invasion can trigger global famine, with Moscow\u2019s Black Sea blockade delaying crucial grain exports, the displacement of agriculture workers, core infrastructure being bombed and destroyed, prices going extremely high. More than 100 ships are reportedly\u00a0stranded<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, calling Russia to open \u2018a blue corridor<\/strong><\/a>\u2019 to allow their safe passage. Ukraine is the European Union\u2019s fourth largest external food supplier, providing 52% of the maize imports, 19% of the soft wheat, and 23% of the vegetable oils \u2013\u00a0stated<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0Janusz Wojciechowski, EU Commissioner for Agriculture, on Ukraine\u2019s impact on pigmeat production on the 10 March. The Russian invasion of Ukraine\u00a0mainly affects<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0the\u00a0world food system<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0in terms of soaring food prices, fears of famine, rising protectionism, green goals dashed, and sunflower shutdown.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Bulgaria’s ex-Prime Minister Boyko Borissov arrested.\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>On 17 March, Borissov\u00a0was detained<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0amid police investigations into 120 cases of fraud initiated by the European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO). EPPO, led by Romania’s former anti-corruption chief prosecutor Laura Kovesi, focuses on criminal misuse of EU funds. Kovesi’s two-day\u00a0visit<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0to Sofia ended hours before Borissov’s arrest.\u00a0According<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0to the interior ministry, former Finance Minister Vladislav Goranov, former chair of the parliamentary budgetary commission Menda Stoyanova, and Borissov’s media adviser Sevdalina Arnaudova were also detained.<\/span><\/p>\n North Caucasus under strain.\u00a0<\/strong>In addition to the\u00a0influx<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0of refugees from Russian-occupied Eastern Ukraine, the North Caucasus is now facing\u00a0skyrocketing<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0prices<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0of everyday necessities and significant\u00a0casualty<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0numbers<\/strong><\/a> among residents serving in Putin\u2019s invasion. These drastic price rises exacerbate regional socioeconomic conditions, which are among the worst in Russia. Regional and local authorities are struggling to pacify the situation. This sets the scene for political upheaval and resurgent violence. High casualty rates amongst locals \u2014 leaning towards younger generations \u2014 is unlikely to make them favourable toward Moscow, particularly with diasporic opposition members and local independent media promoting the view that this is not their war. These dilemmas combine neatly into a single argument – that Moscow is costing the region its future. How new sanctions will affect the region\u00a0is<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0debated<\/strong><\/a> upon,\u00a0but socioeconomic concerns have led to mass\u00a0mobilisation<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0in even the most oppressive North Caucasus republics.<\/p>\n Syrians to Ukraine?\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>Russia is attempting to\u00a0recruit<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0Syrian mercenaries for its invasion of Ukraine. This is due to rapidly mounting casualties among its forces and the unpopularity of using conscripts. Russia\u2019s success is currently unknown, but the main question is, can Assad spare troops while still fighting two enemies? For Ukraine, there are a decent number of anti-Assad fighters who wish to punish Russia for propping up the despotic regime. Even more fervent are the Chechens who wish to relocate from the Idlib area to Ukraine. The most prominent of these is\u00a0Abdul Hakim Shishani<\/strong><\/a>, the leader of\u00a0Ajnad al-Kavkaz<\/strong><\/a>, the largest independent unit of North Caucasian militants. Abdul Hakim\u2019s desired participation also piques interest concerning the potential involvement of veteran commander\u00a0Muslim Shishani<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0and the former fighters of Junud al-Sham, who are currently hunted by most actors in Syria. The logistic viability of relocating to Ukraine for these fighters is questionable.<\/p>\n\u2b50\ufe0f This week’s special<\/b><\/h3>\n
Cameron MacBride<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n\ud83c\udf3a In the Balkans…<\/b><\/h3>\n
\u26f0\ufe0f In the Caucasus…<\/b><\/h3>\n
\ud83d\udee4 In Central Asia…<\/b><\/h3>\n
\ud83d\ude83 In Central Europe…<\/b><\/h3>\n
\ud83c\udfe2 In Eastern Europe…<\/b><\/h3>\n
\ud83c\udf32<\/span> In Russia…<\/b><\/h3>\n